People are pretty sure that Gustav is heading toward Louisiana. Evacuations out of Louisiana have been put in place, and people are obeying them. They remember Katrina three years ago, and they don't want to stick around for a repeat.
Well, since I don't live in New Orleans, or Louisiana, I don't have to worry about a hurricane coming my way, right? As I have always said, living along on the Gulf Coast you have to be on guard for hurricanes, and that means even when everyone else is sure that the hurricane is heading somewhere else. Hurricanes have a mind of their own, and they are not going to follow the meteorologists' predictions. They can land east or west of the predicted landfall. Hence, THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY.
Yeah, being a Gulf Coast resident, you learn the lingo: cone of uncertainty, predicted landfall, "dirty" side of the storm, storm surge, barometric pressure, etc. And you learn what they mean and why you should know those terms. You have almost have to become a mini meteorologist to learn the lingo.
So, the "cone of uncertainty" stretches as far west as the Houston area. This is how I see it: It is almost a given that it will hit Louisiana near Morgan City/New Orleans. BUT, I have to keep an eye and ear out to make sure that it doesn't decide to drift west, thus making a landfall closer to us. You prepare and wait and see. I have water, food, topped off my car full of gas, all just in case. You have to be prepared for anything. IF we have to evacuate, I'm prepared. IF I have to ride out a storm, I'm prepared. BUT, I don't think I have anything to worry about. I am about 90% sure that it will hit east of us.
Which brings me to point #2. All of those people from Louisiana. They evacuated and some are in Houston. Last night's news was showing people from LA stuck in traffic on the east side of Houston because of some construction. The showed of people making hotel reservations, only to get here to find out that their rooms were given away because they didn't get here in time. (How can they if they were stuck in traffic? Come on hotel people!) Overall, evacuations were a lot smoother than three years ago.
So, are we going to have a repeat of three years ago? I welcomed the Katrina evacuees back then, and I will welcome the Gustav evacuees just the same. But I think lessons from the past have made people prepare sooner, evacuate sooner, and listen sooner. Buses and trains took people ahead of the storm to safer places. National guards and police are in place NOW. Because of this, I don't think we'll see the same problems that we saw three years ago. Maybe different problems.
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